Aplicación del modelo de regresión múltiple para la interpolación de las temperaturas y precipitaciones de la península ibérica y las Islas Baleares

Fernando Pardo Navarro

doi:10.3989/estgeogr.201717

Authors

Fernando Pardo Navarro IES Enrique Tierno Galván https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4308-617X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3989/estgeogr.201717

Keywords:

Balearic, interpolation, Iberian Peninsula, multiple regression model, precipitation, temperature

Abstract

Monthly precipitation and temperature maps for the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands were calculated using different free statistical and GIS software and the data from 3736 rainfall and 1626 temperature meteorological stations. The method used was multivariate regression with residuals interpolation. Different variables not used in earlier studies improve the regression models: mean altitude and slope for precipitation models and real radiation for temperature models. The validation of models with 30 percent of the data showed errors similar to previous works. The climatic model data were compared with the data from the 60 Meteorological Main Observatories from Spain for the three last Standard Reference Periods (1961-1990, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010). The model overestimate current precipitation and underestimate current temperatures due to to recent climate changes.

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