Aplicación del modelo de regresión múltiple para la interpolación de las temperaturas y precipitaciones de la península ibérica y las Islas Baleares

Fernando Pardo Navarro

doi:10.3989/estgeogr.201717

Autores/as

Fernando Pardo Navarro IES Enrique Tierno Galván https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4308-617X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3989/estgeogr.201717

Palabras clave:

Baleares, interpolación, modelo de regresión múltiple, península ibérica, precipitación, temperatura

Resumen

Se han elaborado mapas de precipitación mensual y temperatura media mensual para la península ibérica y Baleares mediante la interpolación de los valores de 3736 estaciones pluviométricas y 1626 estaciones termométricas, con software estadístico y de sistemas de información geográfica libres. El método utilizado fue la regresión múltiple con interpolación de residuos. Distintas variables no utilizadas en modelos anteriores mejoraron el ajuste de las regresiones. Entre ellas la altitud y pendiente medias en el caso de la precipitación y la radiación real en la temperatura. La validación de los modelos con el 30 % de los datos presenta errores similares a los obtenidos en trabajos previos. La comparación de los datos del modelo climático con los de los 60 Observatorios Meteorológicos Principales españoles para los tres últimos periodos climáticos referenciales (1961-1990, 1971-2000 y 1981-2010), muestra que el modelo, en líneas generales, sobrestima las precipitaciones y subestima las temperaturas actuales debido a los cambios climáticos recientes.

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Citas

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