Nueva demanda demográfica y escasez de vivienda en España: políticas de vivienda en una población postransicional

Juan A. Módenes; Mariana Marcos; Diva Marcela García-García

doi:10.3989/estgeogr.2024.1163

Authors

Juan A. Módenes Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3049-7495
Mariana Marcos Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Consejo de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2005-3076
Diva Marcela García-García Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Humanas, Universidad Externado de Colombia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4773-6897

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3989/estgeogr.2024.1163

Keywords:

housing demography, uncertainty, housing demand forecasting, construction, housing system, population structures, immigration, housing shortage

Abstract

The article proposes a reinterpretation of the Spanish housing demand system from a demographic perspective. Previously it was considered as a system undergoing gradual change, tending towards zero or negative demand in parallel with the ageing process. Nowadays, it is evident that demand is fluctuating and, at certain times, becomes highly positive. That is, demographic housing demand is characterised by cycles and crises. It is shaped by waves of immigration and changes in household formation behaviour. The empirical work has consisted in decomposing the recent growth of households in Spain into its basic demographic factors: population growth, age-structure variation, migration flows and household formation behaviour. The results show that the supply of new dwellings is increasingly sensitive to the troughs of demographic demand cycles, which, if sustained, could lead to shortages. Finally, it is argued that, in line with changes in the demographic system of housing demand, new housing policies need to be designed. These policies have to be oriented towards ensuring sufficient construction in a cyclical and uncertain environment, as well as safeguarding the demographic use of the existing housing stock.

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