Nueva demanda demográfica y escasez de vivienda en España: políticas de vivienda en una población postransicional
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3989/estgeogr.2024.1163Palabras clave:
demografía residencial, incertidumbre, previsiones de demanda residencial, construcción, sistema residencial, estructuras demográficas, inmigración, déficit de viviendaResumen
El artículo propone una reinterpretación desde la demografía de la evolución reciente del sistema español de demanda agregada de vivienda. Mientras que hasta hace poco se le podía considerar un sistema en cambio paulatino tendente a una demanda cero o negativa, en paralelo al proceso de envejecimiento, actualmente es evidente que la demanda es oscilante y, en ciertos momentos intensa y muy positiva. La demanda residencial demográfica se caracteriza por la sucesión de ciclos y crisis, y es determinada por olas inmigratorias y cambios en los comportamientos de formación de hogar. Empíricamente se ha descompuesto el crecimiento reciente de hogares de España en sus factores demográficos básicos: crecimiento demográfico, cambio en la estructura por edad, flujos migratorios y comportamiento de formación de hogares. La descripción de resultados constata que la oferta de nueva vivienda es cada vez más sensible a los puntos bajos de los ciclos de demanda demográfica, lo que tenderá a producir escasez si se consolida. Por último, se argumentará que se necesita, en coherencia con el cambio del sistema demográfico de demanda residencial, que las nuevas políticas de vivienda se orienten adecuadamente hacia asegurar una construcción suficiente en un entorno cíclico y de incertidumbre y hacia la gestión eficaz del parque de vivienda ya existente que asegure su uso demográfico.
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Números de la subvención PID2020-113665RB-100
Agencia Nacional de Promoción de la Investigación, el Desarrollo Tecnológico y la Innovación
Números de la subvención PICT 2020 SERIE A-01446
